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1/9 The economist Barry Eichengreen believes that the likelihood of failure of the negotiations paper cone cups on the debt ceiling for greater than 50 percent: Dark clouds over the Capitol, seat of the U.S. Parliament. Photo by Keystone
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In an interview with the "Süddeutsche Zeitung" warns the American economic historian Barry Eichengreen of the consequences of a lack of compromise in the U.S.: "A default this size is the world's uncharted territory. paper cone cups No one can predict what will happen if it gets serious. Will the markets of all still work? If chaos erupt? Share and comment
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The American Barry Eichengreen is one of the most renowned economic historians. One of his specialties are global capital and currency market turmoil. What this expert says the threat of insolvency in the U.S., is not reassuring. Eichengreen closes the view of most observers not to, still assume that in the U.S. Congress but still a compromise is reached on the last minute, with the worst can be prevented: "The probability is more than 50 percent of that it comes to the uttermost, "he says in an interview with the" Süddeutsche Zeitung ". Many U.S. politicians would not understand on what abyss they steer the country out of pure party tactics.
While even one day before the final compromise deadline for the U.S. Congress there is no indication paper cone cups in the capital markets on a disaster scenario, Eichengreen warns of dire consequences in this area: "A failure of the talks would be a historic mistake: The consequences could violent turmoil in the financial be "So he speaks to one of the main problems, which are discussed in the markets for weeks vehemently." A default this size is the world's uncharted territory. No one can predict what will happen if it gets serious. Will the markets of all still work? Will break out chaos? "Eichengreen is convinced that in this case, the Fed would have to take extraordinary steps. If the compromise until tomorrow Thursday is not reached, running from the extraordinary measures with which the U.S. government could not yet get to fresh money. By December, the U.S. could no longer pay their bills then.
But would affect not only the U.S. but the world economy, as emphasized the economist. And he points out that the crisis has nothing to do with the fundamental solvency of the United States: "On the one hand, the debt ratio in Europe is higher than in many places in the U.S.. On the other hand, Europe will get more long-term problems paper cone cups to service the debt. "That justified Eichengreen also with demographic change, as in Europe, the proportion to supporting old people will be higher, at least in the near term than in the U.S.. And he sees potential on the revenue side: "We do not draw enough of a tax." These holds Eichengreen notes that the Americans have to pay in comparison to its own economic output less taxes than any other developed country except Australia.
The increase in the debt ceiling was anyway not to be equated with a decision by higher government spending: "It just means that the United States may pay the expenses also that they have long since decided," says Eichengreen. Decided this expenditure has the same Parliament, which now blocked their payment. The most important reason for Oak Greens paper cone cups pessimism lies in its assessment of the politician: "Sensible politicians will prevent the worst happens. The problem is: I'm not sure that we really sensible paper cone cups politician "(mdm).
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